We are pleased to invite you to the seminar series on “Macroeconomics and Labor Markets“ organized by the Chair of Macroeconomics at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Prof. Merkl, the Chair of Global Governance and International Trade at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Prof. Moser, and the Competence Field Macroeconomics of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). Researchers of both institutions, as well as national and international guests, present their current work at the intersection of labor- and macroeconomics.
The next seminar will be held on Tuesday, June 9, from 12:00 noon to 13:30 (German time).
It will take place in-person in room E9 at the IAB (Regensburger Strasse 100, Nürnberg).
You can also join online via Skype-Business.
Ahmet Ali Taskin (IAB)will talk about “Caught in the Storm? Financial Conditions and Employment Decline in German Manufacturing Industry” (joint work with Enzo Weber).
Abstract:
Since 2022, manufacturing employment in Germany has declined markedly, even as overall employment remained stable. This paper examines whether tighter financial conditions contributed to this development. Using pre-pandemic sectoral leverage as a measure of financial exposure, we show that highly leveraged manufacturing sectors experienced significantly larger employment declines following the sharp increase in euro area interest rates. The decline is particularly high for capital intensive manufacturing sectors and robust to controls for energy intensity and preexisting trends. The findings suggest that financial leverage amplified the impact of monetary tightening on manufacturing employment.