Nuremberg Research Seminar in Economics on 5 May 2021
You are invited to join the weekly Nuremberg Research Seminar in Economics on 5 May 2021 at 13:15. The seminar will be held via Zoom. Leif Thorsrud (Norwegian Business School) will be talking about “News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting”.
Please find below the abstract:
Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments.