Seminar Series “Macroeconomics and Labor Markets” on 18 June 2024

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PantherMedia / Bernd Schmidt

We are pleased to invite you to the seminar series on “Macroeconomics and Labor Markets“ organized by the Chair of Macroeconomics at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Prof. Merkl, the Chair of Global Governance and International Trade at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Prof. Moser, and the Competence Field Macroeconomics of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). Researchers of both institutions, as well as national and international guests, present their current work at the intersection of labor- and macroeconomics.

The upcoming seminar is scheduled for Tuesday, 18 June 2024, from 2 pm – 3:30 pm (German time) and will be conducted via Zoom.

Cristina Tello-Trillo (US Census Bureau and University of Maryland) will talk about

To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Outside Manufacturing and Upstream” (joint work with Justin R. Pierce and Peter K. Schott).


We use employer-employee data to follow US workers’ long-run employment flows and earnings after trade liberalization with China. We find that manufacturing workers in more exposed counties flow disproportionately into low-skill services such as retail and temp agencies, and are more likely to exhibit nominal wage declines after seven years. Formal difference-in-differences analysis reveals that exposure to this shock operates predominantly through workers’ local labor market versus industry, that greater upstream exposure via suppliers can offset the adverse impact of own and downstream exposure, and that workers initially employed outside manufacturing generally exhibit relative earnings growth as a result of the liberalization.