Nuremberg Research Seminar in Economics on 12 November 2025, LG 0.423
You are invited to join the weekly Nuremberg Research Seminar in Economics on 12 November 2025, from 13.15 to 14.45 pm. The seminar will be held in room LG 0.423. Michael Lechner (University of St. Gallen) will be talking about “From Average Effects to Targeted Assignment: A Causal Machine Learning Analysis of Swiss Active Labor Market Policies”.
More information can be found here:
Active labor market policies are widely used by the Swiss government, enrolling over half of all unemployed individuals. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of Swiss programs in improving employment and earnings outcomes using causal machine learning and rich administrative data on unemployed individuals in 2014 and 2015, including detailed labor market histories and other covariates. The findings for Swiss citizens and immigrants with permanent residency indicate a small positive average effect of a Temporary Wage Subsidy program on employment and earnings in the third year after program start. In contrast, Basic Courses, such as job application training, exhibit negative effects on both outcomes over the same period. No significant impacts are found for Employment Programs conducted outside the regular labor market or for Training Courses such as language or computer classes. The programs are most effective for individuals with a non-EU migration background, while Temporary Wage Subsidies also benefit those with lower educational attainment. Finally, shallow policy trees provide practical guidance for improving the targeting of program assignments.