We are pleased to invite you to the seminar series on “Macroeconomics and Labor Markets“ organized by the Chair of Macroeconomics at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Prof. Merkl, the Chair of Global Governance and International Trade at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Prof. Moser, and the Competence Field Macroeconomics of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). Researchers of both institutions, as well as national and international guests, present their current work at the intersection of labor- and macroeconomics.
The next seminar will be held on Tuesday, December 16, 4 to 5.30 PM (German time).
It will take place in person at WISO in room LG 4.154 (Lange Gasse 20, Nürnberg).
Online participation will be possible via Zoom.
Mine Senses (Johns Hopkins University) will talk about “Trade Shocks: Next generation” (joint work with John Lopresti and Andrew Greenland).
Abstract:
This paper explores the effects of childhood import shocks on long-run outcomes using linked full-count Census data between 1910 and 1940 and a novel identification strategy that isolates quasi-random variation in local import competition. We show that individuals exposed to import competition in their first 10 years of life report lower incomes and reduced upward mobility 30 years later, with effects that fall most heavily on the left tail of the income distribution. More exposed individuals also exhibit lower educational attainment and increased mobility between states. Intergenerational structural change plays a critical role in our results, with import competition reducing the probability that sons work in high-earning, high-education occupations regardless of their father’s income level.